Scared about Steelhead Triathhlon, but going to do it anyway

Well, I'm acting shy and coy, and perhaps that's to ward off Steelhead's ire, because I'm going to accomplish the swim! Yes, that's right, I'm going to actually swim a sub 45-minute lake michigan 1.2 mile swim. To most swimmers and triathletes doing this distance, or in this race, 1.2 miles isn't a big deal, but it will be a proud moment for myself. I only started swimming last november, and I'm really proud of how far I've come. I took some lake swims at Ohio street beach this/last week and i feel like a rockstar.

Now I picture myself running out of the water, T1'ing, and getting on the bike with fresh legs. Even if I take it lesiurely, I should be at around 16-17mph the whole time. That'll put me squarely within the 3:30 timeframe for the bike segment. I know I can do this.

The worry is the run. If it's boiling hot outside and I get off that bike feeling sweaty and dehydrated and overfilled with nutrition from the last hour of biking... I might not be able to set out on an afternoon 13.1 mile run, which to this date (less than 2 weeks before the race) I have NEVER done yet. I certainly don't want to get to mile 6, poop out, and walk 6 more miles. THAT would never be good.

But on the other hand, not finishing the race would suck too. So I need to decide about completing the race the moment I get off the bike.

This is where I stand right now. I am confident on the swim, confident on the bike, and not confident to run, especially after my abysmal lack of training before wildflower, and after wildflower with vacations and dating and my bike being broken. I know these sound like excuses, mr. conscience, but it's just reality. I am going to make every effort to be in incredible shape for the Chicago Triathlon, but for now, the Steelhead Whirlpool race won't be my fastest.

Here's my current prediction

Swim: 45 minutes

Bike: 3:30

Run: if I do it: 2:00, If I dont: DNF